I’m excited to share a small milestone for the site: I have begun contributing deep dive stock analysis to Seeking Alpha.
While Arbalist Money will remain the primary home for my more unconventional ideas and personal portfolio thoughts, publishing on a larger platform allows me to put my quality compounder framework in front of a broader community. My goal remains to identify durable businesses with high ROIC, defendable margins and clear reinvestment runways, then looking for a reasonable price.
I recently published deep dives on two companies that fit this description, though both currently lack a sufficient margin of safety.
Waste Management (WM): A Fully Valued Defensive Compounder
WM is a stock I have covered in depth on this site. The company is a resilient business built on scarce landfill assets and route density. The core thesis is one of extreme durability, supported by an asset-driven moat that is nearly impossible to replicate. In the article, I share my thoughts on the core Collection & Disposal segment and the integration of Stericycle. Near-term integration hurdles and current multiples suggest the market has already priced in a near-perfect decade. My DCF puts intrinsic value at $242, as I look for an entry point below $215. This is consistent with my previous coverage of the name.
Read the full analysis on Seeking Alpha →
Cintas: Near-Perfect Execution Is Already Priced In
Cintas is a company I follow closely as a business that has achieved exceptional results. Operating margins have reached 23% by leveraging a dominant route-based model. I break down how they have successfully turned a uniform rental business into a logistics network and then into a service-oriented business. While the “No-Programmer” market offers a significant long-term runway, the current valuation of 40x forward earnings suggests the market is pricing in flawless execution for the foreseeable future. My DCF model puts the intrinsic value at $171, which would improve the risk/reward profile of the stock.
Read the full analysis on Seeking Alpha →
Note on Access: Seeking Alpha typically allows a few free articles per month for non-subscribers. If you hit a paywall and want to discuss the valuation models further, feel free to reach out via the contact page.
